My 2008-2009 fur price predictions

[GRIZ]

I am pretty enthused about the upcoming fur season. Price on most goods are pretty decent with strong interest from growing economys such as Greece, Turkey, China and Russia to mention a few. With the U.S. dollar having lost some value it makes some of the items more affordable to these other countries.

The auction houses have sold out or nearly sold out on the majority of furs we have here in MN. Which means the demand is pretty good for most items.

Here are what I'm thinking things will be worth. Prices will be for prime, well cared for stretched and dried hides.

Coon $25-30 Possibly higher if the market isn't flooded with em this yr. Trapper will be hitting them hard this yr. and I'm afraid they will produce more than the processors will be able to handle, which would mean a fall in price. Therefore I plan on selling this item often, weekly maybe even daily.

Marten $55-60 With prices depending allot on color

Cats I don't even like to guess this item as the pelts have so many variables but I would say in the area of $90-100

Mink This one could be a sleeper! $18 with half or a bit better for females. I plan on hanging on to these as I have a gut feeling later in the yr a 25-30% increase wouldn't surprise me. That would be due to a increasing demand and lack of production caused by everyone is chasing coon.

Rats $3.50 - 4 with a possible upward movement for the later skins.

Fisher $70 or better. This one could go up as well with the smaller but more silky females bringing the better prices.

Grey fox No more than $30 Probably even lower. The demand for these is very selective.

Red fox $20 Fair demand with a little selectivity on color. Should stay about where it is.

Coyote Should be at $20 as well but like the grey be selective market. For the bigger clearer bellied yotes in the NW part of the state might fetch $30.

Otter $35-40 with upward movement probable

Beaver $25-30 for blankets to start with. I expect this one to advance as well due to a short harvest. Maybe $35-40 but not any higher.

[BigDog]

With the economy the way it is I have heard that fur prices might be way down. Any truth to this or would you say that your prediction would still be in the same area.

[GRIZ]

With the economy in the toilet fur prices should remain the same or maybe better. The reason I say this is most of our fur is sold over seas. If the economy over there remains stong prices should be good.

I'll explain it the best I can. When fur buyers from a country with a strong economy buy our furs while our economy is struggling they think they are getting a bargain. Their currency basically is worth more american dollars than what they are used to. That could mean an increase in prices for fur.

Now to offset this a couple major fur sales were cancelled. Now the local buyers are not exactly sure what to do. They havn't seen what the world fur markets are doing since may. I wouldn't expect to see early prices overly strong due to this. I am not planning on selling my coon early as stated in my previous post just for this simple reason. Coon are the biggest concern of local buyers right now. As one put it to me late last week "I pretty much change my shorts hourly." Trappers were planning on hitting coon hard with the prices paid late last yr. but the high price of gas detered allot of that, now with price of gas back down the interest in trapping will be a bit higher. I would guess most buyers were hoping for $5 gas. Then they could have an idea on what to expect for a harvest, therefore would be more certain on what to pay. Ninety percent of the fur is taken by 10% of the trappers but not when a major jump happens like with coon last yr.

I think my predictions will still be pretty close cept on coon. They will start out low then once the have an idea on the harvest will adjust prices accordingly. A person will still see at the auctions $40 coon. If you put all your coon up I would guess an average of a bit better than $20 depending on WHEN sold. I think it will start out low (due to reasons already explained) then go up and later in the yr drop.

I'm going to say everything will maintain cept coon which is now a crap shoot.

[GRIZ]

Just talked with a buyer last night. Couple days ago he was talking to a contact in china. Way it sounds the demand isn't as strong as last yr at least not for the early stuff. They are also concerned about what economys of the world will be doing.