Being everybody loves my long winded posts, I'll give you another one! :D
Dave, I agree that man has little to no impact on the climate of the earth, I don't believe in global warming (at least at the hand of man) and I believe these warmer climates in time will moderate, and yes agree the increase in the warmth and dryness during the summer months diminishes natural wetlands, but I still believe this is a fraction of what is causing our duck demise.
In fact if anything it's exasperating the problem not only temporarily but permanently by the drying up of wetlands (which temporarily is in itself a good thing), but on the flip side it gives the farmers a chance to get in there and really work up the land. I see it first hand and have been getting reports of the same from friends in the Dakotas. Land and potholes that have never been worked are being turned over this year. The problem with Minnesota has been a long time coming... Dave, I agree to a point that the waters in your area of the state are in decent shape, but they were never considered the primary breeding grounds of waterfowl in this state... and you have to agree that barring the occasional good year or two or good shoot or two, that it has been in a steady decline in your area for the past 20-30 years. I know this for a fact, because I was up there when duck hunting was really good in your area a dozen-15 years ago. All this while ducks in other states have flourished during the wet 90's. It's not as if there is a finite number of ducks in the country that go only to the best breeding grounds, the breeders (and also the migrators) are bypassing our state because as a whole we hold little of what they want. I know in the last 15 years, waters that I hunt have been really hurt by only what I can guess is run-off. The potholes (even out west) are really silted in and have minimal plant or aquatic life. Why come to that water? Is there a lack of freshwater shrimp? I have to say out west... YES! I can't even remeber the last time I saw one clinging to my waders or a decoy line. Go to South Dakota and you will have thousands clinging to you and your decoys, the water is clear and there is good plant growth. I can remember having this discussion even with you and how you said your wife every year cleans less and less ducks form the camps on Squaw Lake. We took it for granted for far to many years, and I'm not sure we can get it back. Do I think throwing money at it will solve it? Hardly. I doubt if the govt. itself could physically do anything to help bring the numbers back. It needs to be done culturally. as long as we demand CHEAP food and allow rural America to be taken over by large agricultural conglomerates, it will continue! for therein lies the problem.... it's not the health of the land, or the love of the land, or the love of working the land, it's the maximization of profits at any and all costs. I begrudge no one from making a good living, but unfortunatley the small farmer stands little chance competing against the likes of ADM and Cargill and either has to do as they do or contract out to them and do as they say. I have friends with very large farms and sad to say they have no grassland and no wetlands. I've seen photos of these same families with pheasants (piles) and ducks (stringers) and they were taken on the farm inthe 50's and even early 60's! I bet there isn't even a pheasant left on the farm!
What we are left with in the southern 2/3 of the state is a mono-culture of beans and/or corn. Miles and miles of weed-free row crops. At least the goose population is benefiting from this. They've adapted to the urban life, prefer our well manicured lakeshores and ponds and the easy un-pressured city living where the biggest predator is a car when they cross the road from one golf course to another. Plus a quick flight to the edge of town (still in city limits) to feed out of a field of cut corn that next year will be a new sub-division! In fact my last 2 goose fields in Woodbury are now houses! We have systematically pushed the ducks out... Is it increased pressure on our small/shallow lakes? Maybe a small piece. Is it enviromental? Maybe another piece. Is it all development? Nope but it's a good sized piece. Is it all poor farming practices? Nope but it's a bigger piece. we can keep adding it up, but common sense tells us we have a problem and we have to do something if we evne stand a chance to turn it around. Do I have the answers? Hardly... but there has to be someone out there with a high level of intelligence that can begin to come up with a process to slowly turn things around. It's taken a couple generations to degrade it, Let's take a couple more to fix it.
I can even say little things like late season fishing are having an impact. 15 years ago it was rare to see a boat out fishing past the 1st of October, now it looks like any other summer weekend except that time of the year you see raft after raft getting chased around as the fishermen motor from spot to spot. The ducks have problems even finding a spot to rest on weekends. Again a small piece but a piece none the less.
I started duck hunting 28 years ago and I can honestly say it has diminished greatly. I can still remember vividly the lst time I saw the "grand passage". It was in 1997 in Douglas county. We had 8-10 birds or so, and then the sky just opened the flood gates and for 3-4 hours we just layed in the grass and watched thousands upon thousands of ducks in wave after wave begin their journey south. I can remember well all through my high school and college years witnessing this phenomonem, but have not seen it since. Oh sure i've seen migrating ducks, and maybe even a good bunch of migrating ducks, but I have not seen a "true" migration in Minnesota since 1997. We keep attributing the lack of birds to shoot as "they are migrating late" or "coming through after the season", but even on those years where we use those excuses, I never see a real build up of birds. I think as a whole we are putting our heads in the sand and don't want to see the problem, but I really believe it's there and I don't believe Ma Nature caused it...
In the end, I hope that I am just Henny Penny crying the "sky is falling" and every hunter out there can say "I told you so", but my gut tells me otherwise.
Here's to a great season to all hunter's! May the birds all have their feet down and commited, may you shoot well and your dog never miss a mark!
Good Luck!
Ken