Researching the BWCA

[Lee Borgersen]

...Researching the BWCA and why this pretend wilderness is flat-lining, even shrinking with permitted visits

 
Editorial: .......
Is what’s happening in Europe a harbinger for the US? I’m talking about demographics. EU statistics that could soon become relevant to the US would indicate the answer is yes.

  ...
If you’re in your 70’s like I am why should we even care? Of course the answer should be simple since we’ll be leaving our country to our progeny.
The death of old Europe is no longer a laughable euphemism. When I overlay all the scientific data from both sides of the Atlantic, the similarities in demographic changes were pretty obvious, even if we took a different path to get there.

I’ve been researching the BWCA and why this pretend wilderness is flat-lining, even shrinking with permitted visits. More on that in minute, but here’s where Europe becomes our eye to the future.

 ....
In a 2017 article by Italian writer, Giulio Meotti, the key takeaway was this: One third of Europe’s leaders have no children and they seem to have no reason to worry about the future of their continent. As far as the future goes, they “have no skin in the game.”
From Douglas Murry of the London Times: “Europe today has little desire to reproduce itself, fight for itself or even take its own side in an argument.”

In the short term, being childless is a relief since it means no spending for families, no sacrifices and that no one complains about the future consequences.
An EU research report said the same thing: “No kids, no problem.”

However, being a mother or a father means that you have a very real stake in the future of the country you lead. Literally, these moms and dads do have skin in the game.
European leaders who will leave no children. The data presented is from mid-2017: Europe’s most influential leaders that are childless are; Merkel/Chancellor of Germany and Macron/President of France, Teresa May/UK and Paolo Gentiloni/PM Italy. The Dutch PM/Rutte, Swedish PM/Lofven, Luxembourg PM/Bettel, Scottish First Minister/Sturgeon and there are two more.
The point being, in June of 2017, nine of the EU’s 28 countries were being led by childless couples, and their decision to open the flood gates to young, north African immigrants now makes sense.

The number of young, EU nationals is diminishing and they seem to have no desire to take care of the aging populace.
Assumption: let these immigrants do it; sadly, that’s not working out very well. At the same time Turkish leader Erdogan is imploring Muslims to have five children while Islamic imams are urging the faithful to “breed children” supposedly to conquer Europe.
Using Germany as the bellwether for the EU, 30% of German women are childless and that number jumps to 40% for university graduates. Collectively, when it dawns on them what they have done, it will be too late to change course- besides, you can’t force people to have children. The statistical science concludes that most EU nations are in a negative growth demographic.

The US is also coming to grips with issues of immigration, race and shrinking numbers of white nationals.
In October of last year, data was released that was a clear indicator of our demographic shift- either the white birthrate is slowing, or the non-white races are greatly exceeding white birth numbers. Whichever one it is, the effect cannot be stopped. We will adjust and live with it.
Steve Sailor, a gifted writer and provocateur, wrote the following: “For the first time in US history, US citizens 15 years of age and younger (the newest generation) is now the minority with 49.7% of their demographic. In this age group, the non-white majority was made up of blacks, Hispanics, Asian, mulattos, natives and miscellaneous groups.”
What surprised me most was that blacks only make up 13% of the total population. So if you’re white and 15 years old or younger, you are now the minority.
A statistical analysis by Brookings Institute demographer Bill Frey reveals some sobering facts.

Since 2010, 96% of all counties in the US have become less white. Over the same time period, the number of whites in America has only grown one tenth of one percent and in five years, this number will actually start to decline.
As you read these numbers, keep in mind that none of them include the 30 million illegals that now live inside our sovereign borders, most of whom are Hispanics and Blacks.
As mentioned, I started out researching statistics about the BWCA and got slightly sidetracked, but all of my findings dovetail into a theory that I will try to logically connect?
Being conservative with the numbers, my own experience tells me that more than 90% of the visitors to the B’dub are white and this is why wilderness camping will slowly die on its own.

When you look at USFS data  regarding who is using the B’dub, it is juxtaposition to the data provided by Steve Sailor.
Permits and user numbers for the B’dub have held relatively close for the last few years at around 115,000 for all entry points and for all seasons.
That’s not very many and this is supposed to be the most visited wilderness in the country.

But what’s most telling, are the number for teenagers. Out of 115,000 visits, roughly 12,000 were teenagers. And remember, in a few years, all white teenagers to age 20 will be a minority for the first time ever.
Two reasons seem to jump out, kids are no longer interested in “roughing it” and the shrinking white populace under 15 years of age is a demographic that is losing its influence and, by default, its’ clout across the American landscape.
What’s most damming and a key piece of data from all three USFS surveys (69, 91, 07) has to do with folks having their first time experience in the B’dub.

It’s critical because it indicates a negative trend for first time paddlers in the border lakes.
In 1969, first time paddlers were 30%, in 1991, 12% and in 2007, first time paddlers were only 6%. Clearly, not good news.
Most striking, the average user was white, had a college degree and a surprising percentage were women only groups.
In other words, the market that is being targeted for a wilderness experience is a shrinking market and not a sustainable market.

If Becky Rom and her numerous cabals actually wish to save the B’dub “for our children,” they need to point their marketing department towards non-whites, a market that is actually growing, and includes the global adventure tourism market, especially from the Asia/Pacific regions.
If they don’t do this, then the B’dub could become a ghost wilderness where few if any people care to spend their time; then again, this could be their end game - no people at all.
In a few months, the US will engage in the 2020 census and I and a few good friends agree that Ely will probably drop below 3,000 inhabitants.
When the last underground mine closed in Ely in the mid-60’s, the population hovered around 6,000.
For a few decades, Ely survived pretty well since hundreds of miners didn’t move from Ely but car-pooled to various mines on the east Range.

But as they became old-timers, retired and died off, the city saw a continuing exodus of young people and today our population is about half of what it was.
We are crying for help, reaching out, praying for another anchor industry to give Ely another 100 years of sustainable stability and we see it in new mining ventures.
But the anti-mining folks, wealthy elitists from across our country are fighting with outrageous lies about the new mining opportunity that would save the Arrowhead of Minnesota including Duluth.

To no one’s surprise, it is these anti-mining folks who get heard while we get scorned. But the scientific statistics and hard data don’t lie. It’s the science they often talk of.
If I’ve done anything at all, it’s systematically expose what is happening in Europe with what has started to happen in the US; a reshuffling of the demographic.
The data also takes the edge off their ageless battle cry “it’s for our children,” as if using the phrase was reason alone to protect the wilderness.

Sorry, but today’s kids want little to do with a wilderness experience. The data shows that.
Our kids want jobs and security, but our town is dying. The data shows that.
The wilderness experience has never been specifically targeted to minorities or international adventure seekers. The data shows that.
The US white population in our youngest generation age group is now the minority. The data shows that. The targeted wilderness demographic is shrinking. The data shows that.
This generational group could care less about the wilderness experience. The data shows that. The average age of the wilderness user is going up, mid-40s now, yet the wilderness is as unforgiving as ever. The data shows that.
How many B’dub extractions did the USFS make due to death or serious injury, somewhere the USFS will have that data and when they publish it, it should be interesting.
Our new neighbors, PolyMet, TMM and Teck have the full support of Range communities. The data shows that. In the meantime, we fight.
Bob Colombo

[delcecchi]

Interesting piece, although I had some trouble getting the point.  All the nonsense about race etc confused things and was both unnecessary and off putting.    Whether refugees go to Europe from Africa and the Middle East by invitation or because they don't want to starve or be killed is beside the point. It has nothing to do with BWCA, or Ely.

Every developed country has had a drop in birth rates, it seems to be an inevitable part of being a rich country with slow growth rates.  But, that is not why hunting, fishing, and camping has been dropping in participation, in my opinion.   

The first factor is that increasingly people live in big cities, and that makes opportunities to hunt and fish and so forth less available and increasingly expensive.   So kids never get started. 

The second factor is that there are lots of other things competing for our and our kids' and grandkids' time and money.   Youth sports and other such activities can take up all the leisure time.   

 People in general probably have less leisure time to pursue outdoor activities and doing so has become increasingly difficult.   Want to go to the BWCA?  Fine, better have gotten a permit months ago (and at least a 4 day weekend to use). Likewise with camping at a state park.  Better have gotten a reservation months ago, if you want to go someplace nearby.   

And of course the BWCA isn't going to grow anyway because there are only so many visitor days it can provide and still have a quality experience.   

As for mining being a lifeline for NE Minnesota, I don't think that will do it.   Modern mining just doesn't employ that many people in the long term.  Even the iron mining employs many fewer people than it did while producing just as much or more product.

And there is the pollution aspect.   Look at the ongoing issues with the US Steel tailings pond full of polluted water that is leaking into the groundwater and the rivers in the area.    And the state seems powerless to make them stop it from continuing.    There are thousands of hostages.  And of course I am not sure how much I trust large multi-national corporations to do the right thing if it costs them money..  Not a good track record there.   

The problem is, of course, like that of most of "Greater Minnesota" is that the population is shrinking since there isn't much opportunity there.   In farming country, the farms are getting bigger and use fewer people and take a lot more money, so the number of farms continues to drop.    In the north, mining jobs continue to dwindle due to increasing efficiency and automation.    Tourism doesn't really provide much decent opportunity for numbers of people.   

Sure, these new mining ventures will bring some jobs and money into the area and I hope they happen, but that won't save Ely or Babbit or Virginia or Hibbing or Cook or Tower or any of those other towns.    Ely especially, since it is the most isolated.   

Could the internet and "work anywhere so live somewhere fun" folks save Ely?  And the rest of NE Minnesota?   I'm skeptical, but it is possible.      But coming across like racist rednecks, which this article did, isn't going to help.   

Thank you all for your kind attention.   I have thought about this a fair amount.  It seems to be a pretty intractable problem in the long term.     

[LPS]

Thanks to both of you, interesting reads.  I have always said that the pollution thing we are all worried about along with Global Warming is largely a population thing.  Couples had 4 - 10 kids which was very common.  They each had more kids etc etc.  NOW finally that has changed and we are having smaller families and lots of them with no kids.  Times are changing.