Twins missed out on better Santana packages

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by Ken Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since Aug. 2005. He appears weekly on the FSN Baseball Report and MLB on FOX.
Updated: January 29, 2008, 10:44 PM EST


 The Twins didn't get Mike Pelfrey, the Mets' most advanced young pitcher. They didn't get Fernando Martinez, the Mets' most promising young hitter. They didn't get Aaron Heilman, a reliever who would have given them the depth to trade closer Joe Nathan.

 Rosenthal on Santana trade
FOXSports.com senior baseball writer Ken Rosenthal reacts to the pending Twins-Mets trade that has pitcher Johan Santana relocating to New York.
 

Dealing Minnesota The Twins have had a rollercoaster off-season, from losing Torii Hunter, to re-signing Justin Morneau to a franchise-record contract, to now agreeing to trade staff ace Johan Santana to the Mets. Check out Minnesota's wild ride. For Johan Santana, it sure doesn't sound like enough.

After all this time, all this talk, all this trouble, the Twins will be criticized for accepting a relatively modest return for perhaps the best pitcher in the game, criticized for settling on Mets outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.

From the Red Sox, the Twins could have had left-hander Jon Lester or outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, plus a near-ready infielder, Jed Lowrie, and right-hander Justin Masterson. From the Yankees, they could have had right-hander Phil Hughes — perhaps the single best player they were offered — plus center fielder Melky Cabrera, and more.

Instead, they will land Gomez, who might not hit well enough to become the next Carlos Beltran; Mulvey and Humber, whom most scouts project as back-of-the-rotation starters; and Guerra, who, for all his promise, has yet to pitch above Class A. The deal will become official once Santana passes his physical and agrees to a contract extension.

Prospect trades cannot be judged fairly until the players are finished products; for all we know, Guerra might turn into the next Francisco Liriano. The Twins, in particular, deserve the benefit of the doubt. They've got a history of making similar trades and hitting the prospect jackpot.


For Frank Viola, they acquired pitchers Kevin Tapani and Rick Aguilera, both of whom played major roles for their 1991 World Series championship club.

For Chuck Knoblauch, they acquired pitcher Eric Milton and shortstop Cristian Guzman, who helped the club revive in the early part of the decade.

And for A.J. Pierzynski, they acquired Nathan, who evolved into an All-Star closer, and Liriano, who still could become a top-of-the-rotation starter.

If the Twins get two cornerstones out of this deal, new general manager Bill Smith will rate high marks for his first major trade. But go back to the winter meetings, when Smith had the Yankees and Red Sox completely paranoid, the Mets desperate to join the bidding and the Mariners and Angels lurking.

That was the time to strike. That was the moment Smith's leverage was highest.

Smith should have done then what he did early this week, telling interested clubs to make their best and final offers. The Red Sox or Yankees probably would have jumped, and Smith would have been hailed for staring down the AL East superpowers. Case closed.

Instead, Smith waited, reasoning there was no rush, gambling that the Yankees to do something stupid, miscalculating on two fronts. One, Santana had the leverage to refuse a trade once the season started, a possibility raised by his agent, Peter Greenberg, according to sources. Two, teams generally become more reluctant to trade major-league talent as they get closer to spring training.
 
Slowly but surely, Smith's market collapsed, and he eventually ran out of time. The Yankees dropped out of the bidding. The Red Sox declined to improve either of their offers. And ultimately, the Mets landed Santana for probably less than it would have taken to acquire him at the winter meetings.

One rival GM says that the Twins should have kept Santana, then moved him at the July 31 non-waiver deadline, when the demand for him again would have been higher. But Santana's no-trade clause gave him the power to thwart such a strategy, leaving the Twins with only draft picks if he departed as a free agent. The Twins didn't want to take that risk or invite a season-long distraction.

Smith recently made one last run at signing Santana, sources say, offering him a five-year extension. Santana balked, undoubtedly sensing that he could get more from one of the Eastern powers. At that point, the Twins had no choice but to move him.

The Mets were the lucky beneficiary, acquiring a two-time Cy Young award winner in his prime without giving up their best young talent. Santana, who turns 29 on March 13, figures to thrive against less potent National League lineups, and also should enjoy working one season at pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium before the Mets move into their new park.

His new contract will be something outrageous — six years, $135 million is a good guess — but the Mets won't blink. They would have needed to pay big dollars to sign Santana as a free agent, a move that also would have cost them a high draft pick. They're just parting with a few more players this way, players they might not regret losing.

A high-revenue team would make that deal any day.