Oh but ya gotta trust the numbers coming out of China, glenn!
The numbers themselves even if they're correct don't tell the whole story. At some point reason and critical thinking needs to take over. Have listened to NY Gov. Cuomo's blathering ad nauseum this week. So far he's tried to tell the rest of the country how they should go about managing their own situations, saying the other day that the rest of the country would end up just like New York because there are places in upstate New York where cows outnumber people. Wait a minute, here's a guy who a few months back said they had everything under control. Now he's got a helluva mess on his hands and has spent a lot of time pointing fingers and blaming people, particularly the federal govt. Probably not a guy I want to pay a lot of attention to. I seriously doubt that upstate New York = North Dakota or South Dakota or western MN for that matter in terms of population density. My closest neighbor is half a mile away even here in SC MN.
When I went to town yesterday to keep the business operating, I stopped at the grocery store quick. Saw a few people I knew but our conversations were brief and we all practiced more than proper social distancing. Having dealt with confinement livestock, at home and through work all these years, I'd like to think I have a concept of what can go wrong when animals including people are crowded together. When I read so much of what is on social media news feeds or even to an extent from the TC, it is geared solely towards those in urban settings. If I were to interpret a lot of what they're writing or saying verbatim, I wouldn't even go out of the house to do chores. Should shut down everything, go hide in the basement and the government will save me.
Received this yesterday from a friend in his newsletter. He has helped develop models for predicting pest outbreaks and as part of developing economic thresholds for treatment decisions. It's for plant insect and disease management mind you but a lot of the same science still applies. Sorta put things in perspective for me.
"Whether waiting out the pandemic confined to our homes or out on the essential service front lines, most folks now ponder the coronavirus and its current and potential effects on our lives and livelihood.
Are the ever-changing estimates of infection rates, mortality predictions, and flattened curves we are bombarded with right… or wrong? At some point, hindsight will tell us. For now, it is important to remember that these numbers are based on mathematical models; models with limited data on actual infection rates, and on the physical, physiological, and pharmaceutical factors moderating the COVID-19 virus and the disease it causes. They are only predictive models and the odds of the currently calculated best/worst case scenarios being correct are low. They will continue to change as new information is generated and incorporated. When this year’s pandemic is over, the models will be pretty good at describing what happened. Model outputs are seldom entirely accurate, being close enough to be useful is often good enough. So for now, be safe and avoid fear - don’t be stupid either."