From the Athletic:
What type of person are you?
The type who hears about the Twins’ record-setting postseason losing streak — 0-18 since Oct. 5, 2004 — and thinks: Boy, wouldn’t it be cool to see them get that monkey off their back?
Or are you some sort of schadenfreude-fueled sicko?
YES … HA HA HA … YES!
Either way, we’re about to learn a lot more about these Twins. They breezed to first place in the American League Central, the easiest path for any division winner this season, but also had the second-best record in the AL in the second half. Their three-true-outcomes lineup led the AL in homers and strikeouts while coming in second in walks. Their starting rotation was one of the best in the big leagues, with an AL-best 3.82 ERA, and the bullpen pumps gas. The Twins pitching staff, like their lineup, leads the majors in strikeouts. Now, can they win their first playoff game since the Stewart-Hunter-Jones Era?
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, survived a wild ride in the AL East, coming in a distant third behind the Orioles and Rays. This is Toronto’s fifth postseason appearance in the past decade, but they’re still waiting for their first World Series trip since 1993. The Blue Jays have gotten outstanding production from their rotation this season, with their 3.85 ERA coming in second to the Twins in the AL, but have struggled to get their star-studded lineup — headlined by Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman and … the red-hot Brandon Belt?! — running on all cylinders.
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In a best-of-three series, sometimes all it takes to tilt things is one big swing. Both these teams have the bats to do that. And everyone — softies and sickos alike — digs the long ball.
AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Start time: 4:38 p.m. ET on ESPN
Pitching matchup: Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo López
Game 1 pitching matchup
Blue Jays: RHP Kevin Gausman
2023 stats: 12-9, 3.16 ERA, 185 innings, 237 strikeouts, 1.18 WHIP
Gausman won’t win a Cy Young Award this season, but he’ll receive votes for the third consecutive year because that’s just who he’s become: an ace. He’ll dice you up with splitters and catch you snoozing with a 95 mph heater at the top of the strike zone.
But here are two worries. First, the Blue Jays have failed Gausman in the run-support department this season, scoring just 3.55 runs per nine innings behind him. (That number was 5.53 for Yusei Kikuchi, 5.13 for Chris Bassitt and 3.99 for José Berríos). And then there’s the other worry: The Twins might have his number. Gausman beat them May 26 but walked five in 5 1/3 innings — which can happen against a patient lineup like theirs. Then, on June 11, they teed off on him for six runs (seven hits, four walks) and chased him in the fifth inning. You can be sure Gausman will be guarding against free passes and against tipping his pitches in Game 1.
Twins: RHP Pablo López
2023 stats: 11-8, 3.66 ERA, 194 innings, 234 strikeouts, 1.12 WHIP
The Twins so badly wanted to add a front-line starter this past offseason that they traded away a batting champ (who then pulled a Benny Kauff) to get López. It worked out for both sides. López averaged just over six innings per start this season, and he allowed three earned runs or fewer in 22 of 32 outings. He has always had impeccable command, and, like Gausman, he has the composure and the putaway pitches to get himself out of jams with strikeouts.
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I mean, look at all that red. López added almost a mile-and-a-half of velocity on his fastball this season, up from 93.5 mph to 94.9 mph. Four of his five pitches graded out as above-average this season: The four-seamer, sweeper and sinker each rated at plus-6 in Run Value, and the changeup was plus-4. López is particularly tough on right-handed hitters (.597 OPS), who see the full five-pitch mix and are completely lost against López’s sweeper, batting a collective .173 against that pitch.
Game 1 X-factor
Twins 2B Edouard Julien
There’s no doubt the Twins lineup can do damage. They can slug, all right, but are considerably more middle of the pack in on-base percentage. Enter Julien. The rookie was billed as an on-base machine, and he has delivered: a .381 OBP to go with a 130 OPS+. He took over the leadoff spot in early August and has mostly stayed there since. In the last month of the season, Aaron Judge led the majors in walks with 26. Julien was next with 25, then Bryce Harper with 24.
Julien has faced Gausman six times. He doubled once and walked three times. That’s the kind of impact the Twins will hope for in Game 1 as they try to stress Gausman in the early innings.
Notable quotable
Twins shortstop Carlos Correa, who played in the Wild Card Game (used to be one game, not a series, long story) as a rookie way back in 2015, said this Twins team reminds him of the 2015 Astros.
“You’ve got some veteran guys in there already who have success in the past,” Correa said, “and then you bring in young guys who have success right away. You talk about Royce (Lewis). You talk about (Matt) Wallner. You talk about Julien. Even the bullpen arms we have, some young guys out there throwing 100. It reminds me a lot of that (Astros) team.
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“The win in the wild card that year made that team believe we could beat anyone. I feel like with the guys we have right now and the way the roster is constructed, a good win out of the gate would give everybody the confidence to know we have a great team and can compete against anyone.”